The Grand Prediction

19 August, 2010

Now that we are near to the end of the campaign, it’s time to put on the clairvoyant’s hat, get out the crystal ball, or study the tea bags. Whatever method we chose, it is simply time to predict the result.

Over the past six weeks we have watched what looks like two puffer fish fighting over their spot near the pier pylon.

With more carbon emissions created by the leaders of all parties (yes, that includes you Bob Brown) than by a mid size African town, journos have scurried around the country like ants from a disturbed nest all trying to carry home, exclusively of course, their own juicy morsel, only to find it is the same tired piece of pork everybody else is serving up.

What has the Great Australian public made of it all? Well, we can start on the basis that 87 percent of voters will stick with what they know and how they’ve always done it. Another 4 percent will vote informally and 1 percent just won’t bother. Based on that assumption, just 8 percent will swing. 

It is a fair bet that of those swinging voters, a proportion will be disengaged. Some will be mildly interested and the rest will take an active interest. A safe assumption would be that only 30 percent will take an active interest, leaving only 2.4 percent possibly affected by the campaign.

Astute political observer and active participant John Dawkins recently wrote that campaigns do not seem to have much effect on the outcome of the poll. In fact, you only need to look at the polls prior to the campaign.

I opt for the poll six weeks prior to the election as being the best indicator. Check out http://campaignpulse.abc.net.au/ as this shows the poll of polls – Labor 52 percent to Conservatives 48 percent.

This should beam that Labor will be returned with a reduced majority of around eight seats.